The 2013 election and polls

I think political polls are stupid.

I still look at them with passing interest, but generally only to confirm my belief that they are stupid.

I guess they might help to give a feeling of the sentiment people are having at any given time, but the sample size seem to be so small that I wonder how they can ever be taken as anything more serious than a passing curiosity.

There are many people out there who understand and analyse politics better than I do, I’m just a “normal voter”. However this is my blog which means I get to make my own analysis regardless of how misguided, biased or ill-informed I may be 🙂 (that’s what the comments are for. Anyone who happens to stumble across this post can correct me as required)

So the current polls show (and have for a while now) that Labor is going to get trounced in the next election. Personally I hope that doesn’t happen. Sure there are a lot of things they didn’t do well, or could have done better, but the media hype and spin over the last few years has been absolutely ridiculous.

I think there is one thing the polls really don’t do well at taking into account. Some reporters mention it from time to time but it seems to be ignored mostly, and maybe that’s something that statisticians do take into account that I’m not aware of…

People use the polls in the hope it will “scare” their preferred party to sort themselves out.

If someone called me to ask some questions (the usually very leading nature of those questions and the limited answers available aside) wouldn’t you see it as a great opportunity to put a bit of a scare into your side in the hope they act, or also perhaps to give the other side a false sense of confidence?

In general I think that’s a very Australian thing to do, and I wonder how much it is taken into account, or even how it could be taken into account.

So the current polls show Labor heading to a massive defeat. I suspect though there is a very real possibility people are just trying to scare Labor “straight”. I’m not sure that’s a good thing given the skittish nature of Pollies these days (new leader anyone?) but just consider this… On the actual election day when people are about to tick the box, despite how much they might dislike Labor, do you really think they want to vote for Tony Abbott?

Will that last minute fear of an Abbot lead government be enough to scare people away from the LNP?

I know a few Liberal voters who also find the idea of a Abbott government to be a scaring thing. Perhaps the Libs are hoping that showing solidarity behind Tony is the way to win the election, and then they can dump him for someone Australia actually likes.

I don’t know, but I just hope people don’t decide to vote LNP just to “scare” Labor, because if enough people think the same thing, it could very well turn into a nightmare.

Right now, I think Tony is Labors best chance at winning the next election. I’m absolutely petrified of what will happen if Tony takes control.

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